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Having scored nine times in his first seven Premier League games, City forward Erling Haaland has kicked off the season in spectacular form.

Even though this doesn't represent his strongest opening to a season - he scored 11 goals in his opening seven appearances in the 2022-23 season and ten in the previous campaign - it still puts him three goals ahead in the early running for this campaign's English top-flight Golden Boot.

The fact that not one of his nine strikes have been spot-kicks renders it particularly impressive.

What Makes Haaland Special

Naturally, physical problems might significantly impact in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two primary explanations why Haaland is so heavily favored for the prize so quickly into the term.

To begin with, the total of conversions he has already scored - and, of similar importance, the quantity and caliber of chances he is getting.

Furthermore, the slow start his regular challengers for the prize have made.

Chance Quality Assessment

A attacker's expected goals metric (xG) signifies how many goals a Premier League player has traditionally converted from the number and quality of scoring situations he's encountered.

This doesn't represent a statistic haphazardly selected by data analysts, but by historical Premier League data.

When examining at attackers' xG statistics in the English top division so far this campaign from normal play, the Norwegian striker is receiving significantly more good opportunities to find the net than every other footballer.

Actually, even if Haaland were no better at scoring from situations than every other footballer in the competition, he would still have scored significantly more goals as all other players.

Chance Creation Breakdown

This is illustrated by analyzing the total and standard of opportunities that footballers have received in the English first division so far.

Haaland has taken 29 shots so far this campaign, a dozen more than any other player.

That is actually not especially surprising for him - he had previously registered more non-penalty shots at this stage in the previous two campaigns (30 in 2023-24 and 34 in the previous term).

What is, however exceptional even for Haaland is the caliber of opportunities he has had this campaign. His efforts have had an expected goals rating of an average of 0.27.

This number represents is that players have historically converted the shots he has had at a 27 percent conversion rate.

Among footballers attempting at least 10 shots, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had simpler scoring situations to net per shot - because of a few simple finishes against the Hammers and Seagulls.

The Norwegian's expected goals of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 xG rating per attempt he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

To summarize, the opportunities he has had in this campaign have been considerably more favorable to find the net from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the opening of last term.

Historical Comparison

Beginning a campaign so impressively is, as noted earlier, not unusual for Haaland. After seven games last term he had netted ten times - a quartet more than any other player and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

But it was the Reds attacker who won the Golden Boot with 29 conversions, seven more than the Manchester City striker.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has netted fifty percent fewer goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this stage last season.

Indeed this has been the least productive beginning to a Premier League term the Egypt forward has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It's not merely Salah who has begun modestly either. Upon reviewing at the top 11 scorers in the Premier League last campaign, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the additional ten attackers collectively so far.

Whether due to injuries - several key attackers - protracted transfer stories in Alexander Isak's case or simply because their clubs have faced difficulties (multiple established scorers), Haaland's likely rivals in the race for the Golden Boot have underperformed so far.

European Top Scorer Competition

Although the Norwegian appears the clear favourite for the English top scorer award, what about the European Golden Shoe that is awarded to the footballer scoring the most in Europe's premier competitions?

That race is significantly tighter at this early stage because two world-class strikers have also started in great form, with 11 and 9 conversions respectively.

The circumstance Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the greatest expected goals of the three players without having taken any penalties positions him as the favourite.

But since the two continental superstars are some of the most excellent goal-scorers in continental soccer in terms of overperforming their xG, the battle continues intensely.