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Typically, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a type of apology. Sorry we underestimated your franchise in our preseason projections.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who orchestrated the biggest turnaround receives the award. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually honoring excellent coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

But the latest field is profoundly different. The list of contenders is remarkably talented. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent conference winners falling away and longtime underperformers improving together. In an ordinary year, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the overwhelming front-runner. But in such a chaotic and fun year, he's competing with several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot could be structured.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors adore quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. In the right system, the QB has been given the opportunity to display his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's consistent performance. With his guidance, the quarterback has become more confident, far less careless, and has eagerly surrendered to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's vision: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that frees wide receiver receivers everywhere. Williams has capitalized. And when easy reads weren't available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of broken plays.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a defined offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. That's rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who walked into the organization with the level of pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a ordinary season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet the current isn't a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly into trouble is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are surviving on takeaways, and turnovers are notoriously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is established for long-term success. But he comes up just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a dramatic resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a guarantee following his initial press conference appearances and some of his preseason moves.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of youth and veteran savvy, he bet on newbies. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That kind of setup is exciting in theory, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is learning a their job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and everything into sync.

Following an early hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when coaches panic and change too much. He didn't. Rather, he simplified things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the standings because he inherited a skilled roster, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a new quarterback and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator could have ended the season in the early weeks. Instead, it defined it. Through the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that time, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

Still